Joe's Thursday pick

OK, I'll try not to ramble too much, here goes.
Baltimore is a 3 point dog on the road.
Since Billick fired Fassel (5 games ago) Baltimore has won All five times. A win over Cincy should give them the title in that conference. Baltimore on the road this year as a dog are 4-1. In their Div. with no spread their 3-0. As road dogs their 2-1 but have covered 4 of the last 5 games.
Cincy has a record of 2-3 at home with no spread. In the div. they are 3-1. And I think they covered the spread only 5 times this year ( I don't want to look that up ). So I'll take Baltimore with 3 points.
But who knows?
I forgot to mention the pass rating of McNair, before Billick took over play calling McNair's pass rating was 64.7. In the last 5 games it's 99.1.
Joe